Following our marvellous five-game winning streak at the end of last season, and a consequent best finish since 1986-7, it wasn’t hard to find Argyle fans talking as though the play-offs were a real possibility this season. And closing my eyes for a moment, it’s easy enough to get caught up in that fantasy. The dream logic runs something like this. Our band of heroes came appreciably close last time out, and would have been top six but for the three-game away blip at Leeds, Ipswich and Burnley. Colchester’s performance is additional proof that team spirit and a passionate crowd can carry you within touching distance – and then, if the football gods smile benignly…Our crop of youngsters are going to get better – look at Gosling and the 1000% improvement in Reuben Reid’s attitude. Ebanks-Blake could have the season Cameron Jerome did two years ago. Halmosi has signed full-time and will surely get better. Pre-season has been good.
But then I wake up. For fantasy is surely what it is, to imagine that promotion is on this year, or any other, without specific and serious investment. Some facts, to calm our ardour:
Our top scorer and best player last season are 34 and 35 years old.
We had a higher shots-to-goals ratio than almost anyone else in the League i.e. we DO NOT TAKE OUR CHANCES
We have not scored more than three goals in a competitive match since March 2005.
Almost every other club, especially those at or about the same level as us, have improved their squads – some dramatically so.
Other Championship clubs are sniffing around our best players.
We have no money, and no obvious way of raising any, save selling those aforementioned best players.
To tell the truth, I have absolutely no idea. That’s never stopped me offering an opinion on anything before, though. So, lets do a little crystal-ball gazing and see what the final table might actually look like come May.
Starting at the top, it’s hard to see past Wolves and Charlton for the top two spots. Wolves progressed well under McCarthy last season and have made some strong buys. Elliott, Eastwood, Keogh is as potent a frontline as there is in this league, especially with quality wide players like Matt Jarvis and Kightly delivering the crosses. Charlton have the parachute money, plus £16 million for Darren Bent, and while Iwelumo mayn’t be all that, Varney probably is. As for the play-offs, probably between the other two who came down, Watford (who have spent little but have cash in reserve, perhaps to spend in January, and a fit-again Marlon King) and Sheffield United (losing some of Warnock’s dead wood and gaining Billy Sharp); possibly West Brom (but they appear to be haemorrhaging quality players Col U style); Norwich, who’ve bought cannily in the shape of Cureton, Brellier and Stoke’s best player Darel Russell; possibly Wednesday (under Laws a much tougher proposition); possibly Palace if their youngsters come through; possibly (though highly unlikely – but more of this later) us.
As far as the bottom of the table is concerned, Colchester looked doomed, having lost almost all of their players of quality. Blackpool and Scunthorpe, Scunthorpe especially, look certain to struggle; Ipswich show no signs of doing anything other than tread water, which in this league means go backwards; Barnsley have bought well, but doubts persist about their strength in depth, also true of Coventry, who have not. My surprise tip to struggle – Stoke, who would be mourned by virtually no-one, and who seem unable to attract the sort of quality required to kick on. If they start badly, Coates may be forced to abandon his pal Pulis, a downward spiral kicks in- you get the picture. Bristol City, QPR, Leicester, Burnley, Hull, Cardiff, Preston should all be safe enough without threatening the upper echelons.
As for us – well its anybody’s guess, really, as the opening paragraphs suggest. I can’t see it, in all honesty, us making the play-offs – but the eight-year-old in me persists in thinking that, with a fair wind and the devil’s own luck it might – just might – be on. Which perhaps accounts for the rather schizophrenic tone of this piece. Much, I think depends on our start. We could – maybe should – win our first seven games. Realistically, five wins and two draws would put us right up there. Less than that and we can probably forget it. Bring it, as they say, on.
Final Predicted Table, for what it’s worth.
1.Wolves
2.Charlton
3.Norwich
4.Watford
5.Sheffield Utd
6.Sheffield Wednesday
7.C. Palace
8.West Brom
9.Argyle
10.Bristol City
11.Burnley
12.Southampton
13.Leicester
14.QPR
15.Hull
16.Preston
17.Cardiff
18.Coventry
19.Barnsley
20.Stoke
21.Blackpool
22.Ipswich
23.Scunthorpe
24.Colchester